Some forecasts that by 2025 one petrol and bottled mineral water may cost the same. We feel it is not likely. In the last 3 years the new exploration on crude oil drilling has reduced considerably because of the softening of crude prices. The consumption of crude oil and China and India is no way ebbing. Our forecast is that in the medium term, the crude prices may somewhat harden and that may rejuvenate the investments in drilling unless the electric mobility takes off sharply and thats is unlikely. we therefore forecast a 3 to 4 years cyclic movement in the crude prices in the next 10 years.
However in the long run crude oil pricing is expected to remain subdued, the caveat being the availability / price control of lithium or an alternate battery technology. The geo-political play out therefore becomes important in forecasting crude oil or lithium battery pricing and it is anybody’d guess whether China will largely control lithium deposits and therefore command the pricing or US will slowdown electric because they have shale gas and oil reserves.