In FY17, 17.6 million two wheelers were sold out of which 5.6 million (32%) were scooters. Scooters have been growing at a CAGR(compounded annual growth rate) of 17% against a 2% growth in motorcycles. The forecast for next 5 years in 12% CAGR for scooters. Out a total forecasted market of two wheelers at 27 million in FY22, 10 million are expected to be Scooters.
It is true that till FY22, we may not see a significant number of electric motorcycles, therefore the electric scooters are largely going to eat into this 10 million scooter market. some of the prospective petrol motorcycles buyers may also shift to high end electric scooters that are not bought for economy but for performance and lifestyle.
This also leads to a hypothesis that if Li battery prices do not go down substantially, the petrol motorcycle market may not face a tough competition from electric mobility unless government intervenes on forcefully eliminating the petrol motorcycles.